But the biggest piece of good news for Trump is that nobody knows nothin’. Many of those same flaws extend to individual polls, but if you want to bite your lip and read into them, here you go: A pair of polls from “B”rated pollsters show Biden with small-to-significant leads in all-important Florida.
• Biden +3: A Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday showed Biden with a 3-point advantage over Trump. There’s also the potential impact of the pandemic on Election Day turnout, and the Supreme Court’s impact on the counting of votes to consider. See methodology. Things look a little better in Biden’s other stretch state, Georgia, where RCP has him up .4 points, and 538 gives him a 1.7-point edge over Trump in the Peach State. Biden has 80% of the Democrat vote and leads by three among voters not affiliated with either major party. Four years ago, Clinton led Trump by 3.2 points right before the election. The race has been tightening since early last month. Monday’s poll marks a difference from just last week, where Wednesday saw Biden ahead 49% to 46%, Rasmussen reported. • Biden +10: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Biden with a 10-point lead (53 percent to 43 percent) over Trump among likely voters — a margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016. Biden 49%, Trump 46% Friday, October 30, 2020 Democrat Joe Biden has taken a three-point lead over President Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch survey.
After several recent polls that found Sen. Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie with his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, a New York Times/Siena College poll on Thursday found the incumbent with a 46%-40% lead. (Want a free daily e-mail update? • In Michigan, an Emerson College poll released Sunday showed Biden with a 7-point lead (52 percent to 45 percent) over Trump, outside the survey’s 3.9-point margin of error. The president has 84% support with Republicans and Biden has 77% of support from Democrats. Much of that uncertainty cuts both ways, but with the polling in Biden’s favor, it’s a psychological advantage for Trump, at the very least. Only 14% said the texts were disqualifying, while 51% said the issue was a private matter and 32% said the scandal called his character into question.
Rasmussen poll of ‘black likely voter approval of Trump’ indicates the Biden/Dem approach could be backfiring BIG TIME Posted at 6:04 pm … Nobody knows what kind of funny bounces the race could take with the mind-blowing turnout that’s expected, and is already in evidence. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Biden has 80% of the Democrat vote and leads by three among voters not affiliated with either major party. But a Monmouth University poll released Sunday showed Biden with a 4-point lead (50 percent to 46 percent) over Trump. The survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The survey of 1,500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27 to Oct. 29, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. This late in the race, those flaws are magnified by a flood of polls and the trailing polls in the average, which can blunt emerging trends. As we previously reported, Zogby had him at 51% among likely voters. Trump, with 48%, snuck past Biden, who garnered 47%, in the latest poll among likely U.S. voters.
Here’s what’s happening in the polls today: It’s important to understand that the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, the leading aggregates of polls, are very different from each other. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Monday’s poll marks a difference from just last week, where Wednesday saw Biden ahead 49% to 46%, Rasmussen reported.. Monday marks the first time Trump has notched a lead since mid-September, according to the report. Some Democrats had hoped those gains signaled Biden was pulling away in the crucial Sunshine State. • In Texas, which hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter 1976, an Emerson College poll found another dead heat, with Trump and Biden tied at 49 percent each. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. • Biden +5: An Emerson College poll released last week indicated that the former vice president had a 5-point lead (50 percent to 45 percent) over the president. (To see survey question wording, click here.). On Friday, Biden had a three-point advantage – 49% to 46% - after the lead had seesawed up and down between the two men for the previous four days. Trump, with 48%, snuck past Biden, who garnered 47%, in the latest poll among likely U.S. voters. To learn more about our methodology, click here. If the state polls were underestimating Trump's support by the same amount as 2016, Biden would still be far enough ahead to win the required 270 Electoral College votes on November 3. Voters shows Biden edging the president 48% to 47%. Email us. Trump says he's already won the election.